Ethereum’s native token, ETH, is experiencing a shift in its deflationary trend due to a decrease in network activity, which could negatively impact its price. According to blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock, network fees, a proxy for usage, have declined by over 9% this week, reaching $22.1 million – the lowest in nine months. Consequently, the supply of ETH has been on the rise as fewer tokens were burned to verify transactions than created. The adoption of layer 2 networks could contribute to this trend continuing in the near term, potentially placing pressure on the second-largest cryptocurrency.
ETH Inflationary Shift and Price Implications
The Ethereum network underwent a significant change last year with the Merge upgrade, transitioning from a proof-of-work consensus mechanism to proof-of-stake. This created a deflationary narrative for ETH, as during busy periods, the network would burn more tokens than it created. Such a dynamic is typically bullish for the price of the cryptocurrency. However, when network demand is low, the situation reverses, leading to an inflationary trend.
Lucas Outumuro, research head at IntoTheBlock, highlights that the current state of the Ethereum network could put pressure on ETH’s price. JPMorgan analysts also noted earlier this week that the much-anticipated Shanghai upgrade failed to boost network activity. Additionally, Matrixport has reiterated its negative outlook for the crypto asset compared to BTC, forecasting that ETH could fall to as low as $1,000 if the trend continues. At the time of writing, ETH trades at $1,591 and has dropped to a 14-month low price against BTC.
Layer 2 Networks and Their Impact on Ethereum
One of the factors contributing to the decrease in network activity and the subsequent inflationary shift is the adoption of layer 2 networks. These networks aim to improve scalability and reduce transaction costs on the Ethereum blockchain by processing transactions off-chain. As more users and projects adopt layer 2 solutions, the demand for on-chain transactions decreases, leading to lower network fees and reduced token burning.
While the adoption of layer 2 networks can benefit the overall Ethereum ecosystem by enhancing its scalability, it also has a direct impact on the deflationary trend of ETH. As fewer tokens are burned due to reduced on-chain transaction demand, the supply of ETH increases, potentially putting downward pressure on its price.
Outlook for Ethereum and ETH Price
The current inflationary trend in Ethereum and the decreasing network activity raise concerns for the future of the cryptocurrency. With the adoption of layer 2 networks and the failure of the Shanghai upgrade to increase network activity, ETH’s price could face significant challenges in the short term.
Investors and market participants should keep a close eye on the developments in Ethereum’s network activity and the adoption of layer 2 solutions. The balance between on-chain transactions and layer 2 networks will play a crucial role in determining the future deflationary or inflationary trends for ETH. Furthermore, as the market continues to evolve, new factors and developments could impact Ethereum’s network fees, supply, and price in unexpected ways.
In conclusion, the recent shift from a deflationary trend to an inflationary one in Ethereum’s native token, ETH, is a cause for concern. The decrease in network activity, coupled with the adoption of layer 2 networks, could negatively impact the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency. Investors should monitor these trends and developments closely to make informed decisions about their exposure to ETH and the broader crypto market.
