Bitcoin halving in 2024 is giving hope to investors as they expect prices to pick up after the event, despite the short-term bearish outlook. The oldest cryptocurrency experienced a stable weekend, hovering around the $26,000 level, losing 1.7% in the past 24 hours. XRP and Dogecoin led the declines, dropping by 4% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum fell 0.9%, outperforming the general market, as the Market Index slumped 1.1%. Aptos’s APT, Chainlink’s LINK, and ImmutableX’s IMX were the only tokens in the green, rising up to 6% on various growth and fake catalysts.
Short-term bearish outlook
Analysts at trading firm FxPro remain bearish for the next few weeks, expecting prices to reach as low as $23,000 amid the general lack of interest in trading riskier assets and the absence of market-moving catalysts. This short-term outlook is in line with the recent performance of cryptocurrencies, which have been experiencing a downward trend.
Bitcoin’s historical performance after halving events
Bitcoin prices have historically boomed after its halving, a term when block rewards are slashed in half in typically four-year cycles. The estimated date for the next halving is April 21, 2024, according to data. Investors and traders are closely watching these events as they have been significant drivers of the cryptocurrency’s price in the past. For instance, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin saw an exponential increase in value, reaching an all-time high in December 2017.
On-chain data analysis
On-chain data platform CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price performance closely resembles past cycles, indicating that the asset is likely to remain in a consolidation phase until the 2024 Bitcoin halving event. This analysis supports the idea that the cryptocurrency will continue to experience ups and downs in the short term, but will ultimately see significant price growth after the halving.
Long-term valuation metrics
CryptoQuant also hints at a significant price increase after the Bitcoin halving, supported by various long-term valuation metrics, including logarithmic growth curves and the realized cap of short-term user transactions (UTXOs). These metrics indicate under-valuation and the absence of widespread retail speculation, reinforcing the potential for future price growth.
Market sentiment and investor interest
Despite the short-term bearish outlook, many investors remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event is a major factor contributing to this optimism, as it has historically led to significant price increases. As the halving approaches, it is expected that investor interest will grow, potentially driving the price of Bitcoin higher.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bearish, with prices potentially reaching as low as $23,000, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024 is expected to have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency’s price. On-chain data analysis and long-term valuation metrics support the idea that the asset will experience substantial price growth after the halving, as it has done in previous cycles. As a result, investors and traders should keep a close eye on the developments surrounding the Bitcoin halving event, as it could present a unique opportunity for significant returns in the long term.
