Bitcoin ETF rejections by the SEC could lead to short-term negative price action for the cryptocurrency. Despite this, analysts emphasize that Bitcoin’s existence and long-term prospects do not depend on an ETF. As the market anticipates SEC approval, there remains the possibility of continued rejections and the subsequent impact on Bitcoin’s price.
In the event of SEC rejections, analysts predict a downward move for Bitcoin, potentially dipping below $30,000. However, this decline should be considered alongside other bullish factors, such as the upcoming halving event. A drop to $25,000 is unlikely unless the SEC categorically rejects the ETF, but it is more likely to result in a situation where applicants must go back to the drawing board.
Significance of a Bitcoin ETF
A rejection of a Bitcoin ETF would be a major disappointment for the market, as it is seen as a symbol of institutional acceptance and integration. It could also lead to legal challenges for the SEC, following a court ruling in June that deemed the agency’s rejection of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust conversion into a spot ETF as “arbitrary and capricious.” The SEC’s failure to appeal the ruling in October has raised expectations of future approvals.
While Bitcoin does not rely on an ETF for its existence, a rejection would undoubtedly have a bearish impact on its price in the short term. It would require a period of adjustment and realignment for the market to decouple and establish a new narrative.
Repercussions for other cryptocurrencies
The consequences of a Bitcoin ETF rejection would likely extend to other cryptocurrencies like Ether, especially considering that the SEC would then focus on spot Ether ETF applications.
Bullish factors beyond a Bitcoin ETF
However, the investment case for Bitcoin in 2024 remains strong, with more investors recognizing its benefits as a store-of-value asset or digital gold. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving is expected to have a positive impact on its price, following historical patterns of supply reduction.
Regardless of when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, the outlook for the cryptocurrency remains positive and robust. The market will need to adjust and realign its expectations in the face of potential rejections, but the long-term prospects for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not solely dependent on the approval of an ETF.
In conclusion, while a Bitcoin ETF rejection by the SEC would likely result in short-term negative price action for the cryptocurrency, the long-term outlook remains strong. The market will need to adapt and reassess its expectations, but the investment case for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies extends beyond the approval of an ETF. With the upcoming halving event and increasing recognition of Bitcoin’s benefits as a store-of-value asset, the future of the cryptocurrency remains bright.
